With the 2020 Presidential election a few weeks away, opinion polls dominate the news, unlike real news of one of the candidates and his family involved in a massive pay-to-play scandal, selling US interests to hostile foreign governments, dutifully ignored or censored by cable news and social media giants.
Polls show Joe Biden ahead by double digits, portending a landslide victory the likes of which we haven’t seen since the electoral tsunamis of Nixon and Reagan decades ago. If the polls are to be believed, Trump should be packing and preparing for life as a private citizen come late January.
Here are a few examples. A CNN poll from early October gave Biden a 16-point lead over Trump. An Opinium and Guardian poll from days ago doubled down on CNN showing Biden with a 17-point lead. Even Rasmussen Reports, one of the most accurate pollsters in 2016, showed Biden leading Trump by 5 points this week, a drop from 12 points last week.
The Real Clear Politics poll average shows Biden up by 9 points, sampling a number of recent polls giving Biden a lead of 7 to 12 points, no poll showing Trump ahead. By comparison, Clinton had a 5 to 7-point lead in the same RCP poll average four years ago. One can only assume it’s lights out for Trump’s reelection.
One might argue over the polls themselves, as I have written about frequently. Are the polls of simply registered voters or likely voters? By how much have they oversampled Democrats? How are the poll questions worded?
If the polls are correct, a ticket of two unlikeable and corrupt candidates, with resumes of no accomplishment other than self-enrichment through financial or sexual services, are about to win an historic blowout election. What if they are wrong?
If the perky weathergirl on the morning news predicts sunny skies in the mid-70s all day and you look outside and see snow flurries, what are you going to believe?
If one tunes out the polls and looks at the real world, a far different picture emerges. President Trump is holding rallies again, sometimes several in one day, each one drawing tens of thousands of people, including many Democrats and previous nonvoters.
When Harris or Biden hold a rally, attendees measure in the few dozens at best, most of those being reporters or Secret Service. At a recent Biden rally in Toledo, there were more Trump supporters outside the rally shouting “four more years” than there were inside the rally. Besides, if Biden has a double-digit lead in the polls, why is he wasting his time campaigning in Ohio.
Where is the energy and confidence? After being hospitalized for COVID, Trump is out on the campaign trail, with speeches and rallies, giving lengthy interviews, sometimes for two hours as he did last week on the Rush Limbaugh show.
Republicans were cool, calm and collected during the Barrett confirmation hearings, compared to the angry and vitriolic Democrats. Winners are confident, losers are not.
So why are the professional pollsters telling us it’s sunny outside when our own eyes see falling snow? Pollsters are businesses which strive to be successful and make money. Big media is almost exclusively anti-Trump and they want their news to reflect the assertion that Trump is losing, badly.
This depresses Republican voters who may become despondent and not vote. It may also serve to sway those on the electoral fence to vote for the certain victor as everyone likes to be on the winning team. Interestingly this is election interference that Russia could only dream of, and it’s universal across the American media spectrum.
Pollsters become “yes men”, delivering to media organizations a product they want. If CNN commissioned a poll showing Trump with a 10-point lead, they would likely not report the results and choose another pollster. I’m sure…
Continue reading… Are the FakeNews Polls a Setup for Post-Election Chaos?