By: Brian Evans
Since April of 2018, EvansNewsReport.com warned of a‘The Perfect Storm’ brewing for the November midterm elections. In fact, against all precedence, against all odds, and against conventional wisdom, 2018 should be a good year for the Democrat Party. However, the conditions leading up to the election on November 6th is setting up a forecast that points directly towards a November ‘RED WAVE’.
Typically, there is a predictable pattern that has always presented itself during the midterm election cycles. The Party who controls the Presidency, typically loses seats, and many times a large number of seats in Congress. There are only a few exceptions to this rule, and that was in 1934, 1998 and 2002 are notable exceptions, while some have had mixed results. The reasons for this phenomenon is that midterms typically see smaller voter turnout, and it is usually composed of a different array of voters than during a normal Presidential election year. Overall, Presidential elections usually have a larger voter turnout (about 60%), and the voters are less partisan. Midterm elections typically have smaller voter turnout (about 40%) and the voters are more partisan, and very motivated. During Presidential election years, less ideological voters tend to turn out. Meanwhile, Congressional candidates tend to ride the wave of momentum with extra voters who support them as well that is created by a Presidential candidate who creates excitement and enthusiasm for the voters. In addition, Presidential candidates almost always fall in the polls after they are elected, as they try to implement policies and usually fail to implement even a fraction of the promises that they made during the election campaign. Ultimately, within the first year of nearly all Presidential candidates first term, their policies and actions end up alienating huge blocs of the electorate. As a result, their approval ratings drop, and they become a drag on the Congressional candidates in their party.
Then, fast forward to 2016, and the election of President Donald J. Trump. His Presidency has proven to be far from the norm, and the politics that surrounded his campaign and now his Presidency have proven to be one for the history books. With the incessant and non-stop attacks by the Progressive-left, encouragement of hate speech espoused from democrats in Washington, violence against republicans and their supporters throughout the nation, the Mainstream Media pounding the war drums against his Administration, the Mueller Investigation fighting to dismantle and disrupt his agenda, and the ‘Resist’ movement fighting to demonize his every action and tweet. Yet despite their barrage of attacks, his polling numbers remained in the lower to middle forties. Polling numbers that were reminiscent of Ronald Reagan’s first year polling numbers. Interestingly, over the past few months, his numbers are trending up in polling conducted by conservative and liberal pollsters. A trend that has the Progressive-Democrats expressing grave concern.
This trend for the President is due to several factors. First, the President has implemented and accomplished hundreds of promises that he made during his campaign which he spelled out in his CONTRACT WITH AMERICA (View His 2016 Campaign Promises).He has fulfilled promises he made concerning women’s reproductive rights, moving towards energy independence, increasing American trade and manufacturing, boosting the economy, eliminated burdensome regulations that have been dogging the economy. He has been helping small business, increasing consumer optimism, fixing America’s infrastructure, renegotiating and increasing trade, and governmental transparency and accountability. In addition, with his tax cuts he has been helping the poor and middle class with cut taxes, increase wages, providing apprenticeships, increasing jobs, and lowering the unemployment rate for all American’s, especially the poor. In fact, President Trump has been growing in popularity with blacks due to the tax cuts helping them get higher wages, and he has brought the black unemployment rate to the lowest level on record. Then, women have been helped as their wages have increased under his administration as well, and he is now fighting for better maternity leave. President Trump is fighting the Progressive left to not only build the wall to protect America from drugs, gangs, and to end illegal immigration, but he has offered to reach across the aisle to help the DREAMers who came to America illegally, but have spent most or all of their known lives here in America. He offered twice the number of illegals that Obama did, but the Democrats have chose’RESIST’, instead of work with the President. The President’s only request was funding for a wall, and to establish a ‘pathway to citizenship’ that the Democrats said they wanted. President Trump asked that the DREAMers be required to stay out of trouble and not commit any crimes, and meet work and educational requirements over a ten to twelve-year period. In addition, he asked that chain migration be ended, as well as the visa lottery, and a merit based immigration system replace the outdated open border system. In addition, President Trump has followed through in fighting for law enforcement agencies, protecting communities, reforming the Veterans Administration, supporting the military, giving the military the necessary authority and equipment necessary to succeed and do so safely. The President has decimated ISIS with his new approach, worked to increase cyber-security, initiated a new foreign policy that has Syria, Iran, and North Korea isolated and afraid to challenge the might of America. He has China on notice for currency manipulation and unfair trade practices. The President ended the out of control Cuban policy, and isolated Venezuela as the Socialist dictator has ruthlessly starved and beat his own people. President Trump has fought to strengthen our Constitutional rights and freedoms, returned some power back to the states, returned land that Obama seized back to the States, ended the Obamacare mandate, reversed Obama’s ‘gender neutral’ bathroom and locker room policy, returned captive Americans being held by overseas governments, moved our Embassy to Jerusalem, re-established good relations with Israel, re-instated Guantanamo Bay prison for islamic terrorists, and brought balance back to the Supreme Court and our Judicial System. Trump has even re-instated our space program, so we can compete with China and Russian space warfare, and done all this while donating his entire salary to charity.
Therefore, despite the fact that most Presidential candidates typically fall in the polls after they are elected, President Trump is proving once again to be the exception to the rule. That is because unlike most Presidents, Trump has been not only successful, but he has been accomplishing his agenda at a unprecidented rate. Furthermore, he has done so under the microscope of one of the most corrupt investigations, and while the Mainstream Media and with Progressive Democrat Party constantly hurling insults and accusations endlessly at him. In addition, President Trump has not alienated any of his base, and has helped those who opposed him during the 2016 election. For example, black unemployment has plummeted to one of the lowest rates in history. Likewise, polling shows President Trump has gained in black support over the past year. Also, he has gained in support by women, and Latinos, despite Democrats calling him racist, anti-feminist, and claims he hates immigrants. In fact, it is for these reasons that President Trump’s approval rating has shown to be steady over the past year, and now is showing an upward trend in recent months.
Due to his accomplishments for America and Americans, and now the tax cuts kicking in, Americans are beginning to feel the true benefits of President Donald Trump’s Presidency and his ‘Make America Great Again’ agenda. Regardless of the massive anti-Trump campaign that has been leveled against Trump, and their incessant polling that claimed and sometimes continue to claim a blue wave is coming.
Then, if you look at mid-September, we reported ““BLUE WAVE??? Not So Fast: Texas Special Election Turns Seat Held By Dems For 139 Years Red, In District Hillary Won By 12 Points!!!”” In details, in Texas’ 19th District Special Election, there was yet another game changer, when a seat that had not been held by a Republican for an incredible 139 years turned red. In fact, My San Antonio reported that Andrew Phelps McCormick was the last Republican to hold this seat, and he left office in 1879. Also, the 19th district was a district that voted against Trump, and for Hillary Clinton won by 12 points in 2016. Regardless of the news, the mainstream media, nor democrats chose to even mention their tragic loss of a seat that should have, for all intents and purposes, stayed in democrat hands. Despite the hush, hush on the left, Republican Pete Flores became the first Republican to unseat the democrat party in the 19th district for 139 years, as he crushed former state and U.S. Representative Democrat Pete Gallego by 6% (53% to 47%).
Defeated Dem Gallego (Left); Republican winner Flores (Right)
Then to make matters worse for Democrats, just as their momentum seemed to be on the upswing, the Democrats made yet another grave error in judgement with then Judge Brett Kavanaugh, as they smeared, besmirched, and destroyed an innocent mans reputation, for purely political ends.
Now, as early ballots begin to roll in, Republicans are showing unprecedented strength, as Republican voting returns are up over 2016, while Democrat returns are down.
American History Professor and writer Larry Schweikart pointed out how early returns are amazingly high for Republicans, especially in states like Arizona, Florida, Ohio and Iowa. He said that he does not do polls, because we now we actually have real tangible numbers polls are a sample of opinions that cost nothing to give. He went on to say that he examines ballot requests by party, and in 2016, party ID was the single best predictor of a vote according to Pew—very, very few party switchers, but those that were, by 2:1, went from Democrat to Republican. He went on to explain that the rule of thumb is you…
“never compare a mid-term with a presidential election because the turnout for the latter is supposed to be so much higher.”
However, he said he went ahead and did it anyway, just out of intuition.
Interestingly, he said that in four sample states we are already seeing large numbers of ballot requests. States including Arizona, Florida, Ohio, and Iowa, which have differing voting patters, but Schweikart said that he has found that although anything can change, usually the patterns hold, and the Republicans are exceeding their numbers, which is a trend that isn’t supposed to happen. Schweikart goes on to point out that Democrats are falling behind in their numbers, and normally they are the party who gets out the early vote. He explains that although it wouldn’t be surprising that Democrats were lagging behind in a 2016 presidential election, but IT IS surprising that Republicans are running ahead in 2016 as well. It made them second guess their figures to look for a possible statewide tilt. Therefore, they decided to look at four key Florida counties, Hillsborough, Miami-Dade, Lee, and Broward, and in all four counties, EVEN THE BLUE ONES, Democrats are underperforming their 2016 numbers, and Republicans are over-performing. Then, looking to Iowa, they found the same case, despite typically Democrats always lead in total absentee ballots in Iowa. Then, they decided to look at a key Iowa district that is a democrat stronghold…Iowa 2. He points out that everyone has simply assumed that the Democrat incumbent will win, but after looking at the early returns, amazingly it follows the same pattern, where Republicans are up 7% in the district, and Democrats are down by 2.6%. Therefore, that means there is already more than a 5,000 vote shift 18 days prior to absentee voting being over, or election day itself arriving. Also, when analyzing Montgomery County Ohio, which is always a key bellwether county. In 2016 “The Accountant” figured out how to allocate the “indies” by looking at a 20 year voting history of their addresses. It proved uncanny in its accuracy. He said that they
“correctly projected Trump to win a county no Republican had won in 20 years.”
Now, that same county’s absentees are coming in, and they are showing exactly the same 2016 pattern, with Republicans performing even slightly better this time around.
Even in Arizona, there are similar numbers coming in regarding absentee voters, as Republicans hold a 7% lead, as they are over-performing, and Democrats under-performing, despite only having a registration advantage of around 140,000. Ironically, it is a bit unusual for Republicans to out-register Democrats, but in Ohio, Republicans have out-registered Democrats by 300,000.
Top that with the fact that the numbers show that a large portion of the electorate has already voted, and although they have not been counted, Republican voters have outpaced Democrat voters in large margins. Then, in Florida there have been 400,000 absentee ballots that have gone out, with Floridian Republicans with a 7% lead over Democrats, combined with the Kavanaugh hearings, which has been the biggest issue motivating the voters, and it leaves the Republican candidates sitting pretty good in the polls.
Therefore, Professor Schweikart said:
“when I see data—not polls, but ballots—ALL going the same way, then I don’t care what polls or “experts” say. The voters are SAYING SOMETHING DIFFERENT. And this was exactly how I knew Trump would win very early in the 2016 election. The VOTES were talking.”
Now, interestingly the Democrats are beginning to admit that they will likely not gain the Senate. However, there has NEVER BEEN A CASE IN AMERICAN ELECTORAL HISTORY WHERE ONE PARTY GAINED 6 OR MORE SEATS AND LOST THE HOUSE…EVER!
Therefore, despite the fact that the mainstream media tries to point to this poll, or that poll to justify their rationale for the Democrats taking the House of Representatives, or they cite some so-called expert that predicts a Democrat win, or ‘blue wave’, Schweikart choose to listen to the voters.
Furthermore, as voting numbers begin to come in, polling is beginning to mimic those numbers as they shift from democrat blue to republican red. Polling like the most recent ones released after Hurricane Michael, which show Republicans enjoying early vote leads in Florida’s closely watched U.S. Senate and gubernatorial races. Races that had for some time shown incumbent Democrat Senator Bill Nelson with a small lead in nearly every poll against his Republican challenger, sitting Florida Gov. Rick Scott. Then, after Hurricane Michael, in a survey conducted by St. Pete Polls, Scott now leads 49 to 47 percent. Furthermore, when you look at the votes already in, Republican Rick Scott is sitting at the magic number of 50%. Also, Republican Senate Candidate Ron DeSantis went from losing in every poll taken by 5-10% to being tied. Also, among those who have already voted, DeSantis leads over his Democrat opponent by a 49 to 45% margin. Combine that with the fact that the most conservative part of the state, the Florida panhandle was under-sampled due to Hurricane Michael pummeling them, and it shows that the Republicans likely have much higher leads over their Democrat rivals.
Finally, polling is suddenly showing Scott and DeSantis surging in key demographics including independent voters and women, which the Democrats treatment of the Kavanaugh hearings is likely part of their losses.
Typically, in swing states like Ohio, Florida, Missouri, and others, Democrats are able to out-maneuver Republicans and get out the vote. As a result, Democrats typically always go into elections with an advantage and lead. Now, it appears that the Republicans have the momentum heading into the final stretch.
Even Conservative commentator Rush Limbaugh said on Fox News ‘Hannity’ show that he predicts that the Republicans will make gains in the Senate, and hold the House, regardless of mainstream media claims. He said…
“We hold the House and increase the Senate. I think the Democrat Party deserves to lose in the biggest single electoral landslide defeat in my lifetime because of the actions they’ve taken just in the last month.”
Rush Limbaugh, Political Commentator
Interestingly, regardless of Democratic pundits, and mainstream media claims that the Democrats will emerge victorious in November, DNC officials have begun to voice concerns the party is overconfident about its odds of reclaiming the House. Concerns that are even emerging in dark blue states like New Jersey, as Senator Schumer and the DNC send 3 million dollars to prop up his campaign, and Hillary Clinton and Huma Abedin campaign for him. Granted, he has had massive legal troubles, but that has failed to stop the voters in New Jersey from re-electing him in past years. 2018 looks like that could change.
Limbaugh, like a number of others said that he is also skeptical of the polls. He said…
“I don’t trust it. It hasn’t been right consistently enough for me. People doing these surveys desperately want Trump gone. I don’t know how they can take that out of their work.”
Rush Limbaugh, Political Commentator
Meanwhile, other recent polling has shown Republicans making gains in Senate races, raising hopes within the GOP that the party could potentially expand its majority as they look to sweep Senate wins in Arizona, Texas, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, West Virginia, Montana, North Dakota, and likely some other states that are shifting.
Some analysts have warned that Democrats have focused too much on longshot Senate bids – like in Texas or Tennessee — to derail Republican candidates in reliably red states instead of more winnable Midwest battlegrounds.
The Executive Director of the Congressional Leadership Fund super PAC, Corry Bliss said that although Democrats are continuing to outraise Republicans in funding, the…
“political environment continues to improve with new races coming on the map for Republicans and off the map for Democrats.”
Corry Bliss,Executive Director of the Congressional Leadership Fund super PAC
The Gateway Pundit reported that
“Wyoming has seen over 12,000 voters change party affiliation in the weeks before the 2018 primary election. 90% of the them changed their party affiliation to Republican.”
County 10 reported:
The Wyoming Secretary of State’s Office today released data on the number of persons who changed their party affiliation on their voter registration in the weeks before or on the date of the 2018 Primary Election – August 21st.
12,509 persons in total changed their party affiliation between July 6th and September 20th:
6,057 Democrats changed and registered as Republicans;
4,355 Unaffiliated persons changed and registered as Republicans;
744 Unaffiliated persons changed and registered as Democrats;
477 members of the Constitution and Libertarian parties changed and registered as Republicans;
430 Republicans changed and registered as Democrats; and
296 persons of various parties changed and registered as Unaffiliated.
Of those 12,509 persons who changed their party affiliation, 701 subsequently changed their party affiliation again and re-registered back to their original 2018 party affiliation.
A person is allowed under Wyoming law to change their party registration. Party changes are entered into Wyoming’s voter registration system by county clerks and their staff. County clerks have until 30 days after an election to enter registration changes into the statewide database.
Even President Trump’s Rallies crowds are growing more and more massive in size, as the election nears. For example, in Mesa Arizona rally goers had to abandon their cars along the side of the street and walk for miles due to the lines being so long. President Trump caught the lines on his way to the rally…
In Texas, it looks to be even larger, as President Trump is unable to find a location where he can hold all his followers that want to see him and Senator Ted Cruz in Houston, Texas.The Texas Tribune reported that the original site that President Trump set up for the rally in Houston is too small so they found a bigger venue…The Toyota Center, Home of the Houston Rockets team. Still, even a professional team venue that holds 19,000 spectators is not even close to big enough!
According to FOX News –
At least 77,000 people have signed up for President Trump’s Houston rally on Monday to support incumbent Republican Sen. Ted Cruz, who is locked in the Texas Senate battle with Democratic Congressman Beto O’Rourke.
The Houston Chronicle reported that Houston police will be “fully mobilized” for the rally. Attendees must have tickets to enter and will be admitted in the order that they line up, the report said.
“Keep in mind that once the capacity is met, you won’t get in whether you have a ticket or not,” an officer said.
More than 77,800 people had signed up for the rally by Friday morning, according to The Chronicle. A person familiar with the event told the paper that the Trump campaign was not considering a move to a larger venue.
The Trump rallies are bigger than rock concerts! This one, with backup Senator Ted Cruz, is surpassing Woodstock!
Therefore, President Trump now draws bigger crowds than professional sports teams, or even WOODSTOCK!.
Ironically, it is of no surprise as you have the Mainstream Media promoting violence and hate, while the DNC leadership calls for ‘collateral damage’ to Americans who don’t share Pelosi and her Democrat colleagues Socialist viewpoint.
Therefore, as EvansNewsReport.com has been calling since the middle of 2017, a ‘America First’ wave is coming in November for a number of reasons.
First, polling has proven to be inaccurate in the 2016 election, because so many pro-Trump, pro-‘MAGA’ voters refused to do surveys and take polling questions due to growing fear of reprisals from liberal work employers, co-workers, friends, and yes EVEN FAMILY! Plus, a large number of conservative voters believe that their vote is their vote alone, and no-one elses business. Therefore, when pollsters come calling, they are turned away from the pro-Trump, pro-‘MAGA’ voters, while left-wing Progressive voters are more willing to scream their viewpoint in the streets, or in the Congressional Chambers for that matter.
Then, as the past few years have shown, many voters who oppose the left-wing socialist agenda have watched the left vandalize Trump supporters cars, homes, and businesses, they have likely become even less likely to voice their opinion to other people. They have watched the left destroy political opponents by a mere suggestion of sexual impropriety, and regardless of the lack of truth, the victims were left seeing their families devastated, children persecuted, and their family name destroyed. Yes….It would make anyone hesitant to voice their opinions online, on the phone, or on paper, for fear of reprisal, hate, and venomous attacks.
Now, Americans are once again speaking out, not out loud, but at the voting stations, and it appears that it could be an even bigger megaphone than the one used in 2016, as Democrats look to suffer massive losses across the nation next month. Ultimately, it looks like the blue wave didn’t necessarily fizzle, but it was Democrats, Mainstream Media, and their allies trying to splash in the puddles, so they could claim an impending wave. Now in the meantime, America will speak out…they will vote, and on November 6th, it looks like not only America, but the world will witness a massive ‘RED WAVE’ sweep across our nation, as ‘We the People’ continue to fight for and witness President Trump helping to ‘Make America Great Again’!