By: Brian Evans
Over the history of midterm elections, conventional wisdom suggests that 2018 should be a good year for the Democrat Party. A predictable pattern has always presented itself during the midterm election cycles. The Party who controls the Presidency, typically loses seats, many times a large number of seats in Congress. There are only a few exceptions to this rule, and that was in 1934, 1998 and 2002 are notable exceptions, while some have had mixed results. The reasons for this phenomenon is that midterms typically see smaller voter turnout, and it is usually composed of a different array of voters than during a normal Presidential election year. Overall, Presidential elections usually have a larger voter turnout (about 60%), and the voters are less partisan. Midterm elections typically have smaller voter turnout (about 40%) and the voters are more partisan, and very motivated. During Presidential election years, less ideological voters tend to turn out. Meanwhile, Congressional candidates tend to ride the wave of momentum with extra voters who support them as well that is created by a Presidential candidate who creates excitement and enthusiasm for the voters. In addition, Presidential candidates almost always fall in the polls after they are elected, as they try to implement policies and usually fail to implement even a fraction of the promises that they made during the election campaign. Ultimately, within the first year of nearly all Presidential candidates first term, their policies and actions end up alienating huge blocs of the electorate. As a result, their approval ratings drop, and they become a drag on the Congressional candidates in their party.
Now, fast forward to 2016, and the election of President Donald J. Trump. His Presidency has proven to be far from the norm, and the politics that surrounded his campaign and now his Presidency, have proven to be one for the history books. With the incessant and non-stop attacks by the Progressive-left, the Mainstream Media pounding the war drums against his Administration, the Mueller Investigation fighting to dismantle and disrupt his agenda, and the ‘Resist’ movement fighting to demonize his every action and tweet. Yet despite their barrage of attacks, his polling numbers remained in the lower to middle forties. Polling numbers that were reminiscent of Ronald Reagan’s first year polling numbers. Interestingly, over the past few weeks, his numbers are trending up in polling conducted by conservative and liberal pollsters. A trend that has the Progressive-Democrats expressing grave concern.
This trend for the President is due to several factors. First, the President has implemented and accomplished hundreds of promises that he made during his campaign which he spelled out in his CONTRACT WITH AMERICA (View His 2016 Campaign Promises).He has fulfilled promises he made concerning women’s reproductive rights, moving towards energy independence, increasing American trade and manufacturing, boosting the economy, eliminated budonsome regulations that have been dogging the economy. He has been helping small business, increasing consumer optimism, fixing America’s infrastructure, renegotiating and increasing trade, and governmental transparency and accountability. In addition, with his tax cuts he has been helping the poor and middle class cut taxes, increase wages, provide apprenticeships, increase jobs, and lower the unemployment rate for all American’s, especially the poor. In fact, President Trump has been growing in popularity with blacks due to the tax cuts helping them get higher wages, and he has brought the black unemployment rate to the lowest level on record. Then, women have been helped as their wages have increased under his administration as well, and he is now fighting for better maternity leave. President Trump is fighting the Progressive left to not only build the wall to protect America from drugs, gangs, and to end illegal immigration, but he has offered to reach across the aisle to help the DREAMers who came to America illegally, but have spent most or all of their known lives her in America to stay in America. He offered twice the number of illegals that Obama did, but the Democrats have chosen to ‘RESIST’, instead of work with the President. The President’s only request was funding for a wall, and to establish a ‘pathway to citizenship’ that the Democrats said they wanted. President Trump asked that the DREAMers be required to stay out of trouble and not commit any crimes, and meet work and educational requirements over a ten to twelve-year period. In addition, he asked that chain migration be ended, as well as the visa lottery, and a merit based immigration system replace the outdated open border system. In addition, President Trump has followed through in fighting for law enforcement agencies, protecting communities, reforming the Veterans Administration, supporting the military, giving the military the necessary authority and equipment necessary to succeed and do so safely. The President has decimated ISIS with his new approach, worked to increase cyber-security, initiated a new foreign policy that has Syria, Iran, and North Korea isolated and afraid to challenge the might of America. He has China on notice for currency manipulation and unfair trade practices. The President ended the out of control Cuban policy, and isolated Venezuela as the Socialist dictator has ruthlessly starved and beat his own people. President Trump has fought to strengthen our Constitutional rights and freedoms, returned some power back to the states, returned land that Obama seized back to the States, ended the Obamacare mandate, reversed Obama’s ‘gender neutral’ bathroom and locker room policy, returned captive Americans being held by overseas governments, moved our Embassy to Jerusalem, re-established good relations with Israel, re-instated Guantanamo Bay prison for islamic terrorists, and brought balance back to the Supreme Court and our Judicial System. Trump has even re-instated our space program, so we can compete with China and Russian space warfare, and done all this while donating his entire salary to charity.
Therefore, despite the fact that most Presidential candidates typically fall in the polls after they are elected, President Trump is proving once again to be the exception to the rule. That is because unlike most Presidents, Trump has been not only successful, but he has been accomplishing his agenda at an unprecidented rate. Furthermore, he has done so under the microscope of one of the most corrupt investigations, and while the Mainsteam Media and with Progressive Democrat Party constantly hurling insults and accusations endlessly at him. In addition, President Trump has not alienated any of his base, and has helped those who opposed him during the 2016 election. For example, black unemployment has plummeted to one of the lowest rates in history. Likewise, polling shows President Trump has gained in black support over the past year. Also, he has gained in support by women, and Latinos, despite Democrats calling him racist, anti-feminist, and claims he hates immigrants. In fact, it is for these reasons that President Trump’s approval rating has shown to be steady over the past year, and now is showing an upward trend in recent months.
Due to his accomplishments, and now the tax cuts kicking in, Americans are beginning to feel the true benefits of President Donald Trump’s Presidency and agenda. Now, as American’s are starting to see through the Democrat’s and Mainstream Media’s lies and distortions, American’s are starting to realize who to trust. They are beginning to realize that they should put their trust in a man who has been working tirelessly to restore our nation to the Constitutional Republic that our Founder’s envisioned. In fact, for these reasons, Democrats are scared and trying to do anything to stop the President. They see their expected ‘blue wave’ fade to purple, and now beginning to turn red.
One area that looks like it could be a surprise pick up for Republicans is in California, which happens to be the bluest of blue states in our Union. Republican candidate John Estratda is now challenging Diane Feinstein, and some believe that he can win. Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein, who is seeking a fifth full term and her sixth overall election to the Unites States Senate. Estrada is a U.S. Navy veteran, a small business owner, and a decades-long activist in California Republican politics. Estrada says:
“I care about America. I want to help the America First agenda. I have been in the military and I care about my fellow veterans and the people in the military that are trying to keep us safe.” He said, “During that time, I got a chance to travel to a lot of foreign destinations which were pretty incredible. I learned how great America is and how great it has to continue to be.” Estrada went on to say, “I think Donald Trump has really put a strong message to America and the world that America needs to be first, so I will work with the president.”
For obvious reasons, Estrada is running as a pro-Trump Republican, and fighting for the ‘Make America Great Again’ agenda.
Estrada said of Feinstein:
“If somebody has been in office for 25 years and hasn’t done her job yet, I think it’s time to move on. I think California and America needs a change,”
He points specifically to Feinstein’s work as the top Democrat on the Senate Judiciary Committee and said:
“I hold her as one of the responsible parties. She isn’t overseeing the process of what’s going on with the FBI and why they’re going rogue on us,” he said.
In 2016, Hillary Clinton defeated Donald Trump in California by nearly a two-to-one margin. However, California is changing and changing fast. Since the 2016 election, California has become a sanctuary state, invited MS13 gang members on the welcome signs on their border, passed laws making it a crime to call someone by the wrong gender pronoun, lessened penalties for knowingly infecting someone with the deadly HIV virus, raised taxes on individuals and corporations, increased the homeless rate astronomically, had tent cities pop up in the citites due to poverty, started jailing waiters for giving plastic straws to customers without being asked, regulated the citizens to death, sued the President for trying to implement Federal laws and protect citizens, let an illegal alien walk free after murdering one of their young girls and then wore it as a badge of pride, and threatened to secede from the Union.
Therefore, is winning in the most Progressive-Socialist state in the realm of realistic? Absolutely! In fact, another secession movement has begun as Californian’s in the suburbs and rural parts of the state are tired of being controlled by the Socialist led cities. A movement that demonstrates the frustration that Californian’s have with their political Elitist leadership.
Estrada says due to the radically progressive-socialist agenda in California:
“I truly believe I have the ability to cross over party lines, get conservatives and independents and make it a very competitive race.”
Estrada says Republicans just need to address what really matters in California.
“I think (former House Speaker) Tip O’Neill said is greatly many years ago, and that’s that all politics is local. What I have found is that the problems in California can be solved by the federal government,” said Estrada.
He says water access is a good example of this.
“We have a great opportunity to bring sustainable, safe, clean, water for our residents. Unfortunately, environmentalists have allowed so much of this fresh water to go into the Pacific Ocean and we keep losing opportunities to save that in water storage facilities,” said Estrada.
“With federal dollars, I think we can build enough water storage facilities to help everybody out, all water users,” said Estrada.
Estrada would also take aim at the Endangered Species Act, which he says California and the federal government are using to stifle economic development and even the construction of low-income housing, which he says is a major contributor to the growing problem of homelessness in the Golden State.
But while Estrada has issues he is most passionate about, he says his actions will be dictated by what the people of his state want from him.
“I will take my personal views, being a conservative and take a look, case by case, at how we can help the people of California, because really, it belongs to them. It’s their state and I’ll be working for them,” said Estrada.
But he is quick to add that when he serves the people of California, he means the citizens of California.
“We have to help our citizens first. America is a very generous nation. When there’s disasters across the world, we’re there helping everybody, but there’s a lot of corrupt administrations around the world – a lot of dictators and a lot of corruption – and America’s got to lead,” said Estrada.
Read more at http://www.wnd.com/2018/02/feinstein-in-crosshairs-as-trump-fan-plots-ouster/#CUlLR0BsAvgOWtYr.99
The Democrats in Congress, who must have thought that they would leave their GOP challengers in the dust in the 2018 election, must be looking in their rear-view mirrors in disbelief — a new poll shows that the once vaunted huge lead congressional Democrats held going into 2018 has plummeted to virtually nothing.
A new Monmouth University Poll, which was taken before President Trump’s State if the Union address, shows 47% of registered voters indicating they would vote for or lean toward voting for the Democratic candidate in their district compared to 45% who would support the Republican. That is an astonishing drop from last month, when a Monmouth poll found the Democrats with an enormous 15-point lead, 51% to 36%.
The shift among the public is also reflected in the poll’s numbers for President Trump; his approval rating last month was at a record low, 32%, but it has leaped to 42%. 55% of voters felt Trump has achieved some success in joining with Congress to pass his legislative agenda; in December that number stood at 42%.
As opposed to December, when only 26% of voters approved of the tax reform plan, with 47% disapproving, the voters are now equally split at 44%. Last month, 50% of voters felt their federal taxes would rise; now only 36% feel that way.
Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute, concluded, “The president devoted a significant amount of the State of the Union address touting a growing economy and his new tax plan. While there is still some way to go to really win over the public, it looks like the needle has moved in the Republicans’ direction since passage of the tax bill.”
WHITE SULPHUR SPRINGS, W.Va. — President Trump and congressional Republicans said Thursday that their prospects are brightening for the November midterm elections and predicted that Democrats will begin to feel pressure to find ways to cooperate on the big issues facing Capitol Hill.
Speaking to lawmakers at their annual policy retreat, Mr. Trump said they ticked off a list of historic accomplishments last year and urged them to keep forging ahead into the midterm elections.
“We’ve fulfilled far more promises than we promised,” he said.
Mr. Trump also praised Republicans for surviving unprecedented Democratic obstruction to achieve what they could: a $1.5 trillion tax cut package, major changes to Obamacare and the installment of an army of conservative judges, including Supreme Court Justice Neil M. Gorsuch.
But the major issues facing Congress now will require bipartisanship if any legislation is to reach his desk. If things don’t change, the president said, Republicans will have to take their case to voters.
“We have to get help from the other side or we have to elect more Republicans — that’s another way of doing it,” Mr. Trump said.
The president said poll numbers are looking better for Republicans than they had during trying months last year. The party is more bullish than it has been in some time on chances to stave off a Democratic wave in November.
Rep. Steve Stivers of Ohio, chairman of the House Republicans’ campaign committee, said Mr. Trump remains popular in some of the key districts Republicans will need to hold and that their candidate recruitment efforts, fundraising prowess and overall message are strong enough to overcome challenges.
“If we stay focused on selling the tax reform package, I think we’re going to hold the House and I think things are going to be OK for us,” he said.
Democrats would need to flip about two dozen seats to retake the House and two seats to win an effective majority in the Senate.
They are banking on resisting Mr. Trump at every turn and leveraging his unpopularity to get their voters to the polls.
House Republicans plan to counter with their own polarizing “asset” — House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, California Democrat, who remains deeply unpopular.
Mr. Stivers pointed to Mrs. Pelosi’s comments that corporations were doling out relative “crumbs” to workers, which in some cases amounted to $1,000 bonuses, as a result of the tax cut package.
Mr. Trump predicted that the taunt would come back to haunt Democrats in the same way that Hillary Clinton’s comment about Mr. Trump supporters being a “basket of deplorables” hurt the 2016 Democratic nominee.
“Those two words — they seem to have a resemblance. I hope it has the same meaning,” the president said.
“She called it crumbs when people are getting $2,000 and $3,000 and $1,000 — that’s not crumbs. It’s a lot of money,” he said.
Mrs. Pelosi’s office said Thursday that attacking her is a disingenuous way to try to hide the true Republican “tax scam” — the label she has given to the new tax cut law.
“What’s deplorable is Republicans’ desperate effort to hide the multibillion-dollar corporate windfalls of the GOP tax scam behind a handful of meager, one-time bonuses,” said Pelosi spokesman Drew Hammill. “The casual dishonesty of taking Leader Pelosi’s words out of context is nothing compared to the dishonesty of Republicans’ sales pitch on their tax scam itself.”
No Democrats voted for the tax cut bill.
Mr. Trump said they will get another chance to cooperate on immigration. He said he has proposed a middle-ground compromise, and he challenged Democrats and conservative Republicans to join him in the center.
He said he offered the deal to try to entice Democrats to the table. If they refuse, he said, it will be evidence that they are using illegal immigrants as political pawns.
“If they don’t approve something within that sphere, that means, very simply, that they’re not looking to approve it at all. They want to use it for an election issue, but it’s now an election issue that will go to our benefit, not their benefit,” he said.
Republican leaders also feel they have seized the upper hand after the recent government shutdown and predicted that Democrats will be loath to force another shutdown showdown next week, when the government is scheduled again to run out of money.
“One of my favorite old Kentucky country sayings is: There’s no education in a second kick of a mule. And so I think there will be a new level of seriousness here,” said Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, Kentucky Republican.
Republicans are banking on the tax cut bill to carry them to victories in November, hoping voters reward them when workers see positive effects in their paychecks as soon as this month.
“As that happens, I think that will bode well in the midterms,” said Rep. Mark Meadows, North Carolina Republican.
Mr. Meadows also said recent polls have moved prospects for congressional Republicans from “abysmal” to “more traditional ranges.”
A Monmouth University poll showed Republicans gaining 13 points in a month on the question of which party voters would lean toward sending to Washington, shaving a 15-point edge for Democrats down to 2.
Mr. Trump’s approval rating also increased, though more people still disapproved of the job he is doing than approved.
Despite the improving numbers, some vulnerable Republicans are taking steps to distance themselves from Mr. Trump in hopes they will be able to survive any anti-Republican wave.
On a recent Politico podcast, Mr. Stivers said he would advise every candidate to “represent your district.”
“I think we need to be smart about how and where we use everybody, every surrogate, whether it’s the president, vice president, you know, other members of Congress, other folks who want to help,” he said.